Infectious Diseases Modelling Group

Publications

2024

  • Wardle, J., Bhatia, S., Cori, A., & Nouvellet, P. (2024). Temporal variations in international air travel: implications for modelling the spread of infectious diseases. Journal of travel medicine, 31(4). doi:10.1093/jtm/taae062
    Article. View online.
  • Wardle, J., Bhatia, S., Cori, A., & Nouvellet, P. (2024). Temporal variations in international air travel: implications for modelling the spread of infectious diseases. doi:10.1101/2024.02.12.24302682
    Preprint. View online.

2023

  • Kim, Y., Fournié, G., Métras, R., Song, D., Donnelly, C. A., Pfeiffer, D. U., & Nouvellet, P. (2023). Lessons for cross-species viral transmission surveillance from highly pathogenic avian influenza Korean cat shelter outbreaks. Nature Communications, 14(1). doi:10.1038/s41467-023-42738-w
    Article. View online.
  • Ledien, J., Cucunubá, Z. M., Parra-Henao, G., Rodríguez-Monguí, E., Dobson, A. P., Adamo, S. B., . . . Nouvellet, P. (2023). From serological surveys to disease burden: a modelling pipeline for Chagas disease. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 378(1887). doi:10.1098/rstb.2022.0278
    Article. View online.
  • Bhatia, S., Parag, K. V., Wardle, J., Nash, R. K., Imai, N., Van Elsland, S. L., . . . Nouvellet, P. (2023). Retrospective evaluation of real-time estimates of global COVID-19 transmission trends and mortality forecasts. PLoS ONE, 18(10 October). doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0286199
    Article. View online.
  • Bhatia, S., Imai, N., Watson, O. J., Abbood, A., Abdelmalik, P., Cornelissen, T., . . . Cori, A. (2023). Lessons from COVID-19 for rescalable data collection. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 23(9), e383-e388. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(23)00121-4
    Article. View online.
  • Kim, Y., Nouvellet, P., Rogoll, L., Staubach, C., Schulz, K., Sauter-Louis, C., . . . Fournié, G. (2023). Contrasting seasonality of African swine fever outbreaks and its drivers. Epidemics, 44. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100703
    Article. View online.
  • Bhatia, S., Wardle, J., Nash, R. K., Nouvellet, P., & Cori, A. (2023). Extending EpiEstim to estimate the transmission advantage of pathogen variants in real-time: SARS-CoV-2 as a case-study. Epidemics, 44. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100692
    Article. View online.
  • Nash, R. K., Bhatt, S., Cori, A., & Nouvellet, P. (2023). Estimating the epidemic reproduction number from temporally aggregated incidence data: A statistical modelling approach and software tool. PLoS Computational Biology, 19(8 August). doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011439
    Article. View online.
  • Thrift, E., Nouvellet, P., & Mathews, F. (2023). Plastic entanglement poses a potential hazard to European Hedgehogs Erinaceus europaeus in Great Britain. Animals, 13(15), pages. doi:10.3390/ani13152448
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Cori, A., Lassmann, B., & Nouvellet, P. (2023). Data needs for better surveillance and response to infectious disease threats. Epidemics, 43. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100685
    Article. View online.
  • Kim, Y., Leopardi, S., Scaravelli, D., Zecchin, B., Priori, P., Festa, F., . . . Nouvellet, P. (2023). Transmission dynamics of lyssavirus in Myotis myotis: mechanistic modelling study based on longitudinal seroprevalence data. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 290(1997), pages. doi:10.1098/rspb.2023.0183
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Kim, Y., Donnelly, C. A., & Nouvellet, P. (2023). Drivers of SARS-CoV-2 testing behaviour: a modelling study using nationwide testing data in England. Nature Communications, 14, pages. doi:10.1038/s41467-023-37813-1
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Wardle, J., Bhatia, S., Kraemer, M. U. G., Nouvellet, P., & Cori, A. (2023). Gaps in mobility data and implications for modelling epidemic spread: A scoping review and simulation study. Epidemics, 42. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100666
    Article. View online.

2022

  • Hayes, S., Lushasi, K., Sambo, M., Changalucha, J., Ferguson, E. A., Sikana, L., . . . Donnelly, C. A. (2022). Understanding the incidence and timing of rabies cases in domestic animals and wildlife in south-east Tanzania in the presence of widespread domestic dog vaccination campaigns. Veterinary research, 53(1), 106. doi:10.1186/s13567-022-01121-1
    Article. View online.
  • Bracher, J., Wolffram, D., Deuschel, J., Görgen, K., Ketterer, J. L., Ullrich, A., . . . Schienle, M. (2022). National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021. Communications Medicine, 2(1). doi:10.1038/s43856-022-00191-8
    Article. View online.
  • Ledien, J., Cucunubá, Z. M., Parra-Henao, G., Rodríguez-Monguí, E., Dobson, A. P., Basáñez, M. G., & Nouvellet, P. (2022). Spatiotemporal variations in exposure: Chagas disease in Colombia as a case study. BMC Medical Research Methodology, 22(1). doi:10.1186/s12874-021-01477-6
    Article. View online.
  • Charniga, K., Cucunubá, Z. M., Walteros, D. M., Mercado, M., Prieto, F., Ospina, M., . . . Donnelly, C. A. (2022). Estimating Zika virus attack rates and risk of Zika virus-associated neurological complications in Colombian capital cities with a Bayesian model. Royal Society Open Science, 9(11). doi:10.1098/rsos.220491
    Article. View online.
  • Ledien, J., Cucunubá, Z. M., Parra-Henao, G., Rodríguez-Monguí, E., Dobson, A. P., Adamo, S. B., . . . Nouvellet, P. (2022). Linear and Machine Learning modelling for spatiotemporal disease predictions: Force-of-Infection of Chagas disease. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 16(7). doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0010594
    Article. View online.
  • Nash, R. K., Nouvellet, P., & Cori, A. (2022). Real-time estimation of the epidemic reproduction number: Scoping review of the applications and challenges.. PLOS digital health, 1(6), e0000052. doi:10.1371/journal.pdig.0000052
    Article. View online.
  • Nash, R., Cori, A., & Nouvellet, P. (2022). Estimating the epidemic reproduction number from temporally aggregated incidence data: a statistical modelling approach and software tool. doi:10.1101/2022.12.08.22283241
    Preprint. View online.
  • Wardle, J., Bhatia, S., Kraemer, M., Nouvellet, P., & Cori, A. (2022). Gaps in mobility data and implications for modelling epidemic spread: a scoping review and simulation study. doi:10.1101/2022.03.07.22272001
    Preprint. View online.

2021

  • Desai, A., Nouvellet, P., Bhatia, S., Cori, A., & Lassmann, B. (2021). Data journalism and the COVID-19 pandemic: opportunities and challenges. The Lancet Digital Health, 3(10), pages. doi:10.1016/S2589-7500(21)00178-3
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Forna, A., Dorigatti, I., Nouvellet, P., & Donnelly, C. A. (2021). Comparison of machine learning methods for estimating case fatality ratios: an Ebola outbreak simulation study. PLoS ONE, 16(9), 1-15. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0257005
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Lushasi, K., Hayes, S., Ferguson, E. A., Changalucha, J., Cleaveland, S., Govella, N. J., . . . Hampson, K. (2021). Reservoir dynamics of rabies in south-east Tanzania and the roles of cross-species transmission and domestic dog vaccination. Journal of Applied Ecology, 58(11), 2673-2685. doi:10.1111/1365-2664.13983
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Bhatia, S., Parag, K., Wardle, J., Imai, N., Elsland, S. V., Lassmann, B., . . . Nouvellet, P. (2021). Global predictions of short- to medium-term COVID-19 transmission trends : a retrospective assessment. doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-799162/v1
    Preprint. View online.
  • Gold, S., Donnelly, C. A., Woodroffe, R., & Nouvellet, P. (2021). Modelling the influence of naturally acquired immunity from subclinical infection on outbreak dynamics and persistence of rabies in domestic dogs. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 15(7), 1-19. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0009581
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Charniga, K., Cucunubá, Z. M., Mercado, M., Prieto, F., Ospina, M., Nouvellet, P., & Donnelly, C. A. (2021). Spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of the 2014-2017 Zika and chikungunya epidemics in Colombia. PLoS Computational Biology, 17(7), 1-25. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009174
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Djaafara, B. A., Whittaker, C., Watson, O. J., Verity, R., Brazeau, N. F., Widyastuti., . . . others. (2021). Using syndromic measures of mortality to capture the dynamics of COVID-19 in Java, Indonesia, in the context of vaccination rollout. BMC Medicine, 19(1), 1-13. doi:10.1186/s12916-021-02016-2
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Charniga, K., Cucunubá, Z. M., Walteros, D. M., Mercado, M., Prieto, F., Ospina, M., . . . Donnelly, C. A. (2021). Descriptive analysis of surveillance data for Zika virus disease and Zika virus-associated neurological complications in Colombia, 2015-2017. PLoS ONE, 16(6), 1-16. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0252236
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Bhatia, S., Lassmann, B., Cohn, E., Desai, A. N., Carrion, M., Kraemer, M. U. G., . . . Nouvellet, P. (2021). Using digital surveillance tools for near real-time mapping of the risk of infectious disease spread. npj Digital Medicine, 4(1), 1-10. doi:10.1038/s41746-021-00442-3
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Nouvellet, P., Bhatia, S., Cori, A., Ainslie, K. E. C., Baguelin, M., Bhatt, S., . . . others. (n.d.). Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission. Nature Communications, 12(a1090), pages. doi:10.1038/s41467-021-21358-2
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Lavezzo, E., Franchin, E., Ciavarella, C., Cuomo-Dannenburg, G., Barzon, L., Del Vecchio, C., . . . Crisanti, A. (2021). Author Correction: Suppression of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the Italian municipality of Vo’ (Nature, (2020), 584, 7821, (425-429), 10.1038/s41586-020-2488-1). Nature, 590(7844), E11. doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2956-7
    Article. View online.
  • Fu, H., Wang, H., Xi, X., Boonyasiri, A., Wang, Y., Hinsley, W., . . . Ferguson, N. M. (2021). Database of epidemic trends and control measures during the first wave of COVID-19 in mainland China. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 102, 463-471. doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.075
    Article. View online.
  • Bhatia, S., Wardle, J., Nash, R., Nouvellet, P., & Cori, A. (2021). A generic method and software to estimate the transmission advantage of pathogen variants in real-time : SARS-CoV-2 as a case-study. doi:10.1101/2021.11.26.21266899
    Preprint. View online.
  • Bracher, J., Wolffram, D., Deuschel, J., Görgen, K., Ketterer, J., Ullrich, A., . . . Schienle, M. (2021). National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021. doi:10.1101/2021.11.05.21265810
    Preprint. View online.
  • Bhatia, S., Parag, K., Wardle, J., Imai, N., Van Elsland, S., Lassmann, B., . . . Nouvellet, P. (2021). Global predictions of short- to medium-term COVID-19 transmission trends : a retrospective assessment. doi:10.1101/2021.07.19.21260746
    Preprint. View online.

2020

  • Unwin, H. J. T., Mishra, S., Bradley, V. C., Gandy, A., Mellan, T. A., Coupland, H., . . . Flaxman, S. (2020). State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States. Nature Communications, 11(1). doi:10.1038/s41467-020-19652-6
    Article. View online.
  • Grassly, N. C., Pons-Salort, M., Parker, E. P. K., White, P. J., Ferguson, N. M., Ainslie, K., . . . Xi, X. (2020). Comparison of molecular testing strategies for COVID-19 control: a mathematical modelling study. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 20(12), 1381-1389. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30630-7
    Article. View online.
  • Radhakrishnan, S., Vanak, A. T., Nouvellet, P., & Donnelly, C. A. (2020). Rabies as a public health concern in India⇔a historical perspective. Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease, 5(4). doi:10.3390/tropicalmed5040162
    Article. View online.
  • Dighe, A., Cattarino, L., Cuomo-Dannenburg, G., Skarp, J., Imai, N., Bhatia, S., . . . Riley, S. (2020). Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and implications for lifting stringent interventions. BMC Medicine, 18(1). doi:10.1186/s12916-020-01791-8
    Article. View online.
  • Djaafara, B. A., Whittaker, C., Watson, O. J., Verity, R., Brazeau, N. F., Widyastuti, W., . . . Walker, P. G. T. (2020). Quantifying the dynamics of COVID-19 burden and impact of interventions in Java, Indonesia. doi:10.1101/2020.10.02.20198663
    Preprint. View online.
  • Lavezzo, E., Franchin, E., Ciavarella, C., Cuomo-Dannenburg, G., Barzon, L., Del Vecchio, C., . . . Crisanti, A. (2020). Suppression of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the Italian municipality of Vo’. Nature, 584(7821), 425-429. doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2488-1
    Article. View online.
  • Flaxman, S., Mishra, S., Gandy, A., Unwin, H. J. T., Mellan, T. A., Coupland, H., . . . Bhatt, S. (2020). Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe. Nature, 584(7820), 257-261. doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2405-7
    Article. View online.
  • Unwin, H. J. T., Mishra, S., Bradley, V. C., Gandy, A., Mellan, T. A., Coupland, H., . . . Flaxman, S. (2020). State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States. doi:10.1101/2020.07.13.20152355
    Preprint. View online.
  • Forna, A., Nouvellet, P., Dorigatti, I., & Donnelly, C. A. (2020). Case fatality ratio estimates for the 2013-2016 west african ebola epidemic: Application of boosted regression trees for imputation. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 70(12), 2476-2483. doi:10.1093/cid/ciz678
    Article. View online.
  • Li, C., Zhang, Y., Nouvellet, P., Okoro, J. O., Xiao, W., & Harder, M. K. (2020). Distance is a barrier to recycling – or is it? Surprises from a clean test. Waste Management, 108, 183-188. doi:10.1016/j.wasman.2020.04.022
    Article. View online.
  • Forna, A., Dorigatti, I., Nouvellet, P., & Donnelly, C. A. (2020). Spatiotemporal variability in case fatality ratios for the 2013–2016 Ebola epidemic in West Africa. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 93, 48-55. doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.046
    Article. View online.
  • Gold, S., Donnelly, C. A., Nouvellet, P., & Woodroffe, R. (2020). Rabies virus-neutralising antibodies in healthy, unvaccinated individuals: What do they mean for rabies epidemiology?. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 14(2). doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0007933
    Article. View online.
  • Jeffrey, B., Walters, C. E., Ainslie, K. E. C., Eales, O., Ciavarella, C., Bhatia, S., . . . Riley, S. (2020). Anonymised and aggregated crowd level mobility data from mobile phones suggests that initial compliance with covid-19 social distancing interventions was high and geographically consistent across the UK. Wellcome Open Research, 5, 1-10. doi:10.12688/WELLCOMEOPENRES.15997.1
    Article. View online.
  • Thompson, H. A., Imai, N., Dighe, A., Ainslie, K. E. C., Baguelin, M., Bhatia, S., . . . Ferguson, N. M. (2020). SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence on repatriation flights from Wuhan City, China. Journal of Travel Medicine, 27(8). doi:10.1093/JTM/TAAA135
    Article. View online.
  • Radhakrishnan, S., Vanak, A. T., Nouvellet, P., & Donnelly, C. (2020). Rabies as a Public Health Concern in India – A Historical Perspective. doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0579.v1
    Article. View online.
  • Charniga, K., Cucunubá, Z., Mercado, M., Prieto, F., Ospina, M., Nouvellet, P., & Donnelly, C. (2020). Spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of the 2014-2017 Zika and chikungunya epidemics in Colombia. doi:10.1101/2020.09.11.20189811
    Article. View online.
  • Mellan, T., Hoeltgebaum, H., Mishra, S., Whittaker, C., Schnekenberg, R., Gandy, A., . . . Bhatt, S. (2020). Subnational analysis of the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil. doi:10.1101/2020.05.09.20096701
    Article. View online.
  • Vollmer, M., Mishra, S., Unwin, J., Gandy, A., Mellan, T., Bradley, V., . . . Bhatt, S. (2020). A sub-national analysis of the rate of transmission of COVID-19 in Italy. doi:10.1101/2020.05.05.20089359
    Article. View online.

2019

  • Fabrizio, M. D. C., Schweigmann, N. J., Cohen, J. E., Zu Dohna, H., e Gürtler, R., Cucunubá, Z. M., . . . Basañez, M. G. (2019). Insights from quantitative and mathematical modelling on the proposed WHO 2030 goals for chagas disease.. Gates Open Research, 3. doi:10.12688/gatesopenres.13069.1
    Article. View online.
  • Desai, A. N., Kraemer, M. U. G., Bhatia, S., Cori, A., Nouvellet, P., Herringer, M., . . . Lassmann, B. (2019). Real-time epidemic forecasting: challenges and opportunities. Health Security, 17(4), 268-275. doi:10.1089/hs.2019.0022
    Article. View online.
  • Waxman, D., & Nouvellet, P. (2019). Sub- or supercritical transmissibilities in a finite disease outbreak: Symmetry in outbreak properties of a disease conditioned on extinction. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 467, 80-86. doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.01.033
    Article. View online.
  • Zecchin, B., De Nardi, M., Nouvellet, P., Vernesi, C., Babbucci, M., Crestanello, B., . . . Cattoli, G. (2019). Genetic and spatial characterization of the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) population in the area stretching between the Eastern and Dinaric Alps and its relationship with rabies and canine distemper dynamics. PLoS ONE, 14(3). doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0213515
    Article. View online.
  • Forna, A., Nouvellet, P., Dorigatti, I., & Donnelly, C. A. (2019). Case fatality ratio estimates for the 2013–2016 West African Ebola epidemic: application of Boosted Regression Trees for imputation. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 79, 128. doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2018.11.313
    Article. View online.
  • Bhatia, S., Carrion, M., Cohn, E., Cori, A., Nouvellet, P., Lassmann, B., . . . Brownstein, J. (2019). Big brother is watching - using digital disease surveillance tools for near real-time forecasting. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 79, 27. doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2018.11.080
    Article. View online.
  • Leopardi, S., Nouvellet, P., Priori, P., Zecchin, B., Salomoni, A., Mancin, M., . . . de Benedictis, P. (2019). Unraveling the role of Myotis myotis in the ecology and transmission of rabies-related lyssaviruses (RRLVs). International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 79, 56. doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2018.11.148
    Article. View online.
  • Bhatia, S., Lassmann, B., Cohn, E., Carrion, M., Kraemer, M., Herringer, M., . . . Nouvellet, P. (2019). Using Digital Surveillance Tools for Near Real-Time Mapping of the Risk of International Infectious Disease Spread: Ebola as a Case Study. doi:10.1101/19011940
    Article. View online.
  • Polonsky, J. A., Baidjoe, A., Kamvar, Z. N., Cori, A., Durski, K., John Edmunds, W., . . . Jombart, T. (2019). Outbreak analytics: A developing data science for informing the response to emerging pathogens. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 374(1776). doi:10.1098/rstb.2018.0276
    Article. View online.

2018

  • Cori, A., Nouvellet, P., Garske, T., Bourhy, H., Nakouné, E., & Jombart, T. (2018). A graph-based evidence synthesis approach to detecting outbreak clusters: an application to dog rabies. PLoS Computational Biology, 14(12), 1-22. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006554
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Hay, J. A., Nouvellet, P., Donnelly, C. A., & Riley, S. (2018). Potential inconsistencies in Zika surveillance data and our understanding of risk during pregnancy. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 12(12). doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0006991
    Article. View online.
  • Nouvellet, P. (2018). Outbreak of Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, April–May, 2018: an epidemiological study. The Lancet, 392(10143), 213-221. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31387-4
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Cucunubá, Z. M., Nouvellet, P., Peterson, J. K., Bartsch, S. M., Lee, B. Y., Dobson, A. P., & Basáñez, M. -G. (2018). Complementary paths to Chagas disease elimination: the impact of combining vector control with etiological treatment. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 66(suppl4), S293-S300. doi:10.1093/cid/ciy006
    Article. View on figshare.

2017

  • Cucunubá, Z. M., Nouvellet, P., Conteh, L., Vera, M. J., Angulo, V. M., Dib, J. C., . . . Basáñez, M. G. (n.d.). Modelling historical changes in the force-of-infection of Chagas disease to inform control and elimination programmes: application in Colombia. BMJ Global Health, 2(3), 1-11. doi:10.1136/bmjgh-2017-000345
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Nouvellet, P. (2017). Age matters in the UK's Brexit referendum. Significance, 14(4), 30-33. doi:10.1111/j.1740-9713.2017.01055.x
    Article. View online.
  • Cori, A., Donnelly, C. A., Dorigatti, I., Ferguson, N. M., Fraser, C., Garske, T., . . . Blake, I. M. (2017). Key data for outbreak evaluation: building on the Ebola experience. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 372(1721), 20160371 ( pages). doi:10.1098/rstb.2016.0371
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Garske, T., Cori, A., Ariyarajah, A., Blake, I. M., Dorigatti, I., Eckmanns, T., . . . Donnelly, C. A. (2017). Heterogeneities in the case fatality ratio in the West African Ebola outbreak 2013–2016. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 372(1721), 20160308 ( pages). doi:10.1098/rstb.2016.0308
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Nouvellet, P., Cori, A., Garske, T., Blake, I. M., Dorigatti, I., Hinsley, W., . . . Riley, S. (2018). A simple approach to measure transmissibility and forecast incidence. Epidemics, 22, 29-35. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2017.02.012
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Cucunubá, Z. M., Manne-Goehler, J. M., Díaz, D., Nouvellet, P., Bernal, O., Marchiol, A., . . . Conteh, L. (2017). How universal is coverage and access to diagnosis and treatment for Chagas disease in Colombia? A health systems analysis. Social Science & Medicine, 175, 187-198. doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2017.01.002
    Article. View on figshare.

2016

  • Nouvellet, P. (2016). Exposure patterns driving Ebola transmission in West Africa: a retrospective observational study. PLoS Medicine, 13(11), 1-23. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1002170
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Nouvellet, P. (2016). After Ebola in West Africa — unpredictable risks, preventable epidemics. New England Journal of Medicine, 375(6), 587-596. doi:10.1056/NEJMsr1513109
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Cauchemez, S., Nouvellet, P., Cori, A., Jombart, T., Garske, T., Clapham, H., . . . Ferguson, N. M. (2016). Unraveling the drivers of MERS-CoV transmission. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(32), 9081-9086. doi:10.1073/pnas.1519235113
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Ferguson, N. M., Cucunuba, Z. M., Dorigatti, I., Nedjati-Gilani, G. L., Donnelly, C. A., Basanez, M. -G., . . . Lessler, J. (2016). Countering the Zika epidemic in Latin America. Science, 353(6297), 353-354. doi:10.1126/science.aag0219
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Bourhy, H., Nakouné, E., Hall, M., Nouvellet, P., Lepelletier, A., Talbi, C., . . . Rambaut, A. (2016). Revealing the micro-scale signature of endemic Zoonotic disease transmission in an African urban setting. PLoS Pathogens, 12(4), 1-15. doi:10.1371/journal.ppat.1005525
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Cucunubá, Z. M., Okuwoga, O., Basáñez, M. -G., & Nouvellet, P. (2016). Increased mortality attributed to Chagas disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Parasites and Vectors, 9(42), 1-13. doi:10.1186/s13071-016-1315-x
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Nouvellet, P. (2016). Ebola virus disease among male and female persons in West Africa. New England Journal of Medicine, 374(1), 96-98. doi:10.1056/NEJMc1510305
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Nouvellet, P., Robotham, J. V., Naylor, N. R., Woodford, N., & Ferguson, N. (2016). Potential impact of novel diagnostics and treatments on the burden of antibiotic resistant in <i>Escherichia coli</i>. doi:10.1101/052944
    Article. View online.
  • Lessler, J., Salje, H., Van Kerkhove, M. D., Ferguson, N. M., Cauchemez, S., Rodriquez-Barraquer, I., . . . Cummings, D. A. T. (2016). Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY, 183(7), 657-663. doi:10.1093/aje/kwv452
    Article. View online.

2015

  • Nouvellet, P., Garske, T., Mills, H. L., Nedjati-Gilani, G., Hinsley, W., Blake, I. M., . . . Ferguson, N. M. (2015). The role of rapid diagnostics in managing Ebola epidemics. Nature, 528(7580), S109-S116. doi:10.1038/nature16041
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Nouvellet, P. (2015). Ebola virus disease among children in West Africa. New England Journal of Medicine, 372(13), 1274-1277. doi:10.1056/NEJMc1415318
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Nouvellet, P., Cucunubá, Z. M., & Gourbière, S. (2015). Ecology, evolution and control of Chagas disease: a century of neglected modelling and a promising future. Advances in Parasitology, 87, 135-191. doi:10.1016/bs.apar.2014.12.004
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Nouvellet, P. (2015). West African Ebola epidemic after one year — slowing but not yet under control. New England Journal of Medicine, 372(6), 584-587. doi:10.1056/NEJMc1414992
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Aylward, B., Barboza, P., Bawo, L., Bertherat, E., Bilivogui, P., Blake, I., . . . Yoti, Z. (2015). Ebola virus disease in West Africa--the first 9 months. The New England journal of medicine, 372(2), 189. doi:10.1056/NEJMc1413884
    Article. View online.
  • Deng, H., Nouvellet, P., & Waxman, D. (2015). Characterizing the dynamical accumulation of nuclear DNA in the sperm cells of lycium barbarum L.. International Journal of Plant Biology, 6(1), 4-8. doi:10.4081/pb.2015.5996
    Article. View online.

2014

  • Lessler, J., Rodriguez-Barraquer, I., Cummings, D. A. T., Garske, T., Van Kerkhove, M., Mills, H., . . . Nouvellet, P. (2014). Estimating potential incidence of MERS-CoV associated with Hajj pilgrims to Saudi Arabia, 2014. PLoS Currents, pages. doi:10.1371/currents.outbreaks.c5c9c9abd636164a9b6fd4dbda974369
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Nouvellet, P. (2014). Ebola virus disease in West Africa — the first 9 Months of the epidemic and forward projections. New England Journal of Medicine, 371(16), 1481-1495. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa1411100
    Article. View on figshare.

2013

  • Nouvellet, P., Dumonteil, E., & Gourbière, S. (2013). The improbable transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi to human: the missing link in the dynamics and control of Chagas disease. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 7(11), pages. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0002505
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Donnelly, C. A., & Nouvellet, P. (2013). The contribution of badgers to confirmed tuberculosis in cattle in high-incidence areas in England. PLoS Currents, pages. doi:10.1371/currents.outbreaks.097a904d3f3619db2fe78d24bc776098
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Dumonteil, E., Nouvellet, P., Rosecrans, K., Ramirez-Sierra, M. J., Gamboa-León, R., Cruz-Chan, V., . . . Gourbière, S. (2013). Eco-bio-social determinants for house infestation by non-domiciliated Triatoma dimidiata in the Yucatan peninsula, Mexico. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 7(9), 1-9. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0002466
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Nouvellet, P., & Gourbiere, S. (2013). Biased sex-ratio and sex-biased heterozygote disadvantage affect the maintenance of a genetic polymorphism and the properties of hybrid zones. Journal of Evolutionary Biology, 26(8), 1774-1783. doi:10.1111/jeb.12180
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Nouvellet, P., Newman, C., Buesching, C. D., & Macdonald, D. W. (2013). A multi-metric approach to investigate the effects of weather conditions on the demographic of a terrestrial mammal, the European badger (Meles meles). PLoS ONE, 8(7), 1-7. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0068116
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Nouvellet, P., Donnelly, C. A., De Nardi, M., Rhodes, C. J., De Benedictis, P., Citterio, C., . . . Cattoli, G. (2013). Rabies and canine distemper virus epidemics in the red fox population of Northern Italy (2006–2010). PLoS ONE, 8(4), 1-12. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0061588
    Article. View on figshare.

2012

  • Campbell, R. D., Nouvellet, P., Newman, C., Macdonald, D. W., & Rosell, F. (2012). The influence of mean climate trends and climate variance on beaver survival and recruitment dynamics. Global Change Biology, 18(9), 2730-2742. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02739.x
    Article. View on figshare.

2011

  • Nouvellet, P., Rasmussen, G. S. A., Macdonald, D. W., & Courchamp, F. (2012). Noisy clocks and silent sunrises: measurement methods of daily activity pattern. Journal of Zoology, 286(3), 179-184. doi:10.1111/j.1469-7998.2011.00864.x
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Nouvellet, P., Bacon, J. P., & Waxman, D. (2011). Testing the level of ant activity associated with quorum sensing: An empirical approach leading to the establishment and test of a null-model (response to the comment of Richardson et al.). Journal of Theoretical Biology, 280(1), 191-193. doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.03.035
    Article. View online.
  • Nouvellet, P., Ramirez-Sierra, M. J., Dumonteil, E., & Gourbière, S. (2011). Effects of genetic factors and infection status on wing morphology of Triatoma dimidiata species complex in the Yucatán peninsula, Mexico. Infection, Genetics and Evolution, 11(6), 1243-1249. doi:10.1016/j.meegid.2011.04.008
    Article. View on figshare.

2010

  • Czaczkes, T. J., Nouvellet, P., & Ratnieks, F. (2011). Cooperative food transport in the Neotropical ant, Pheidole oxyops. Insectes Sociaux, 58(2), 153-161. doi:10.1007/s00040-010-0130-1
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Nouvellet, P. (2010). From A to B, statistical modelling of the ecology of ants and badgers.
    Thesis. View on figshare.
  • Nouvellet, P., Bacon, J., & Waxman, D. (2010). Testing the level of ant activity associated with quorum sensing: An empirical approach leading to the establishment and test of a null-model. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 266(4), 573-583. doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2010.07.010
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Nouvellet, P., Buesching, C. D., Dugdale, H. L., Newman, C., & Macdonald, D. W. (2011). Mouthing off about developmental stress: individuality of palate marking in the European badger and its relationship with juvenile parasitoses. Journal of Zoology, 283(1), 52-62. doi:10.1111/j.1469-7998.2010.00743.x
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Macdonald, D. W., Newman, C., Buesching, C. D., & Nouvellet, P. (2010). Are badgers ‘Under The Weather’? Direct and indirect impacts of climate variation on European badger (Meles meles) population dynamics. Global Change Biology, 16, 2913-2922. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02208.x
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Dugdale, H. L., Nouvellet, P., Pope, L. C., Burke, T., & Macdonald, D. W. (2010). Fitness measures in selection analyses: sensitivity to the overall number of offspring produced in a lifetime. Journal of Evolutionary Biology, 23(2), 282-292. doi:10.1111/j.1420-9101.2009.01896.x
    Article. View on figshare.

2009

  • Macdonald, D. W., Newman, C., Nouvellet, P., & Buesching, C. D. (2009). An analysis of Eurasian badger (Meles meles) population dynamics: implications for regulatory mechanisms. Journal of Mammalogy, 90(6), 1392-1403. doi:10.1644/08-MAMM-A-356R1.1
    Article. View on figshare.
  • Nouvellet, P., Bacon, J., & Waxman, D. (2009). Fundamental insights into the random movement of animals from a single distance-related statistic. American Naturalist, 174(4), 506-514. doi:10.1086/605404
    Article. View on figshare.

2007

  • Broom, M., Nouvellet, P., Bacon, J., & Waxman, D. (2007). Parameter-free testing of the shape of a probability distribution. BioSystems, 90(2), 509-515. doi:10.1016/j.biosystems.2006.12.002
    Article. View on figshare.

2000

  • Marais, G., Nouvellet, P., Keightley, P. D., & Charlesworth, B. (2005). Intron size and exon evolution in Drosophila. Genetics, 170(1), 481-485. doi:10.1534/genetics.104.037333
    Article. View on figshare.