Infectious Diseases Modelling Group



Lushasi, Kennedy, Hayes, Sarah, Ferguson, Elaine A, Changalucha, Joel, Cleaveland, Sarah, Govella, Nicodem J, Haydon, Daniel T, Sambo, Maganga, Mchau, Geofrey J, Mpolya, Emmanuel A, Mtema, Zacharia, Nonga, Hezron E, Steenson, Rachel, Nouvellet, Pierre, Donnelly, Christl A and Hampson, Katie (2021) Reservoir dynamics of rabies in south-east Tanzania and the roles of cross-species transmission and domestic dog vaccination. Journal of Applied Ecology, 58 (11). pp. 2673-2685. ISSN 0021-8901

Desai, Angel, Nouvellet, Pierre, Bhatia, Sangeeta, Cori, Anne and Lassmann, Britta (2021) Data journalism and the COVID-19 pandemic: opportunities and challenges. The Lancet Digital Health, 3 (10). e619-e621. ISSN 2589-7500

Forna, Alpha, Dorigatti, Ilaria, Nouvellet, Pierre and Donnelly, Christl A (2021) Comparison of machine learning methods for estimating case fatality ratios: an Ebola outbreak simulation study. PLoS ONE, 16 (9). a0257005 1-15. ISSN 1932-6203

Charniga, Kelly, Cucunubá, Zulma M, Mercado, Marcela, Prieto, Franklyn, Ospina, Martha, Nouvellet, Pierre and Donnelly, Christl A (2021) Spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of the 2014-2017 Zika and chikungunya epidemics in Colombia. PLoS Computational Biology, 17 (7). a1009174 1-25. ISSN 1553-734X

Gold, Susannah, Donnelly, Christl A, Woodroffe, Rosie and Nouvellet, Pierre (2021) Modelling the influence of naturally acquired immunity from subclinical infection on outbreak dynamics and persistence of rabies in domestic dogs. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 15 (7). a0009581 1-19. ISSN 1935-2727

Djaafara, Bimandra A, Whittaker, Charles, Watson, Oliver J, Verity, Robert, Brazeau, Nicholas F, Widyastuti, , Oktavia, Dwi, Adrian, Verry, Salama, Ngabila, Bhatia, Sangeeta, Nouvellet, Pierre, Sherrard-Smith, Ellie, Churcher, Thomas S, Surendra, Henry, Lina, Rosa N and others, (2021) Using syndromic measures of mortality to capture the dynamics of COVID-19 in Java, Indonesia, in the context of vaccination rollout. BMC Medicine, 19 (1). a146 1-13. ISSN 1741-7015

Charniga, Kelly, Cucunubá, Zulma M, Walteros, Diana M, Mercado, Marcela, Prieto, Franklyn, Ospina, Martha, Nouvellet, Pierre and Donnelly, Christl A (2021) Descriptive analysis of surveillance data for Zika virus disease and Zika virus-associated neurological complications in Colombia, 2015-2017. PLoS ONE, 16 (6). a0252236 1-16. ISSN 1932-6203

Bhatia, Sangeeta, Lassmann, Britta, Cohn, Emily, Desai, Angel N, Carrion, Malwina, Kraemer, Moritz U G, Herringer, Mark, Brownstein, John, Madoff, Larry, Cori, Anne and Nouvellet, Pierre (2021) Using digital surveillance tools for near real-time mapping of the risk of infectious disease spread. npj Digital Medicine, 4 (1). a73 1-10. ISSN 2398-6352

Nouvellet, Pierre, Bhatia, Sangeeta, Cori, Anne, Ainslie, Kylie E C, Baguelin, Marc, Bhatt, Samir, Boonyasiri, Adhiratha, Brazeau, Nicholas F, Cattarino, Lorenzo, Cooper, Laura V, Coupland, Helen, Cucunuba, Zulma M, Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina, Dighe, Amy and others, (2021) Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission. Nature Communications, 12 (a1090). ISSN 2041-1723

Cori, Anne, Nouvellet, Pierre, Garske, Tini, Bourhy, Hervé, Nakouné, Emmanuel and Jombart, Thibaut (2018) A graph-based evidence synthesis approach to detecting outbreak clusters: an application to dog rabies. PLoS Computational Biology, 14 (12). e1006554 1-22. ISSN 1553-734X

Ebola Outbreak Epidemiology Team, The (2018) Outbreak of Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, April–May, 2018: an epidemiological study. The Lancet, 392 (10143). pp. 213-221. ISSN 0140-6736

Cucunubá, Zulma M, Nouvellet, Pierre, Peterson, Jennifer K, Bartsch, Sarah M, Lee, Bruce Y, Dobson, Andrew P and Basáñez, Maria-Gloria (2018) Complementary paths to Chagas disease elimination: the impact of combining vector control with etiological treatment. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 66 (suppl4). S293-S300. ISSN 1058-4838

Nouvellet, Pierre, Cori, Anne, Garske, Tini, Blake, Isobel M, Dorigatti, Ilaria, Hinsley, Wes, Jombart, Thibaut, Mills, Harriet L, Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma, Van Kerkhove, Maria D, Fraser, Christophe, Donnelly, Christl A, Ferguson, Neil M and Riley, Steven (2018) A simple approach to measure transmissibility and forecast incidence. Epidemics, 22. pp. 29-35. ISSN 1755-4365

Cucunubá, Zulma M, Nouvellet, Pierre, Conteh, Lesong, Vera, Mauricio Javier, Angulo, Victor Manuel, Dib, Juan Carlos, Parra -Henao, Gabriel Jaime and Basáñez, María Gloria (2017) Modelling historical changes in the force-of-infection of Chagas disease to inform control and elimination programmes: application in Colombia. BMJ Global Health, 2 (3). e000345 1-11. ISSN 2059-7908

Garske, Tini, Cori, Anne, Ariyarajah, Archchun, Blake, Isobel M, Dorigatti, Ilaria, Eckmanns, Tim, Fraser, Christophe, Hinsley, Wes, Jombart, Thibaut, Mills, Harriet L, Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma, Newton, Emily, Nouvellet, Pierre, Perkins, Devin, Riley, Steven, Schumacher, Dirk, Shah, Anita, Van Kerkhove, Maria D, Dye, Christopher, Ferguson, Neil M and Donnelly, Christl A (2017) Heterogeneities in the case fatality ratio in the West African Ebola outbreak 2013–2016. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 372 (1721). p. 20160308. ISSN 0962-8436

Cori, Anne, Donnelly, Christl A, Dorigatti, Ilaria, Ferguson, Neil M, Fraser, Christophe, Garske, Tini, Jombart, Thibaut, Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma, Nouvellet, Pierre, Riley, Steven, Van Kerkhove, Maria D, Mills, Harriet L and Blake, Isobel M (2017) Key data for outbreak evaluation: building on the Ebola experience. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 372 (1721). p. 20160371. ISSN 0962-8436

Cucunubá, Zulma M, Manne-Goehler, Jennifer M, Díaz, Diana, Nouvellet, Pierre, Bernal, Oscar, Marchiol, Andrea, Basáñez, María-Gloria and Conteh, Lesong (2017) How universal is coverage and access to diagnosis and treatment for Chagas disease in Colombia? A health systems analysis. Social Science & Medicine, 175. pp. 187-198. ISSN 0277-9536

International Ebola Response Team, (2016) Exposure patterns driving Ebola transmission in West Africa: a retrospective observational study. PLoS Medicine, 13 (11). e1002170 1-23. ISSN 1549-1277

WHO Ebola Response Team, (2016) After Ebola in West Africa — unpredictable risks, preventable epidemics. New England Journal of Medicine, 375 (6). pp. 587-596. ISSN 0028-4793

Cauchemez, Simon, Nouvellet, Pierre, Cori, Anne, Jombart, Thibaut, Garske, Tini, Clapham, Hannah, Moore, Sean, Mills, Harriet Linden, Salje, Henrik, Collins, Caitlin, Rodriquez-Barraquer, Isabel, Riley, Steven, Truelove, Shaun, Algarni, Homoud, Alhakeem, Rafat, AlHarbi, Khalid, Turkistani, Abdulhafiz, Aguas, Ricardo J, Cummings, Derek A T, Van Kerkhove, Maria D, Donnelly, Christl A, Lessler, Justin, Fraser, Christophe, Al-Barrak, Ali and Ferguson, Neil M (2016) Unraveling the drivers of MERS-CoV transmission. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113 (32). pp. 9081-9086. ISSN 0027-8424

Ferguson, N M, Cucunuba, Z M, Dorigatti, I, Nedjati-Gilani, G L, Donnelly, C A, Basanez, M-G, Nouvellet, Pierre and Lessler, J (2016) Countering the Zika epidemic in Latin America. Science, 353 (6297). pp. 353-354. ISSN 0036-8075

Bourhy, Hervé, Nakouné, Emmanuel, Hall, Matthew, Nouvellet, Pierre, Lepelletier, Anthony, Talbi, Chiraz, Watier, Laurence, Holmes, Edward C, Cauchemez, Simon, Lemey, Philippe, Donnelly, Christl A and Rambaut, Andrew (2016) Revealing the micro-scale signature of endemic Zoonotic disease transmission in an African urban setting. PLoS Pathogens, 12 (4). e1005525 1-15. ISSN 1553-7374

Cucunubá, Zulma M., Okuwoga, Omolade, Basáñez, María-Gloria and Nouvellet, Pierre (2016) Increased mortality attributed to Chagas disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Parasites and Vectors, 9 (42). pp. 1-13. ISSN 1756-3305

WHO Ebola Response Team, (2016) Ebola virus disease among male and female persons in West Africa. New England Journal of Medicine, 374 (1). pp. 96-98. ISSN 0028-4793

Nouvellet, Pierre, Garske, Tini, Mills, Harriet L, Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma, Hinsley, Wes, Blake, Isobel M, Van Kerkhove, Maria D, Cori, Anne, Dorigatti, Ilaria, Jombart, Thibaut, Riley, Steven, Fraser, Christophe, Donnelly, Christl A and Ferguson, Neil M (2015) The role of rapid diagnostics in managing Ebola epidemics. Nature, 528 (7580). S109-S116. ISSN 0028-0836

WHO Ebola Response Team, (2015) Ebola virus disease among children in West Africa. New England Journal of Medicine, 372 (13). pp. 1274-1277. ISSN 0028-4793

Nouvellet, Pierre, Cucunubá, Zulma M and Gourbière, Sébastien (2015) Ecology, evolution and control of Chagas disease: a century of neglected modelling and a promising future. Advances in Parasitology, 87. pp. 135-191. ISSN 0065-308X

WHO Ebola Response Team, (2015) West African Ebola epidemic after one year — slowing but not yet under control. New England Journal of Medicine, 372 (6). pp. 584-587. ISSN 0028-4793

Lessler, Justin, Rodriguez-Barraquer, Isabel, Cummings, Derek A T, Garske, Tini, Van Kerkhove, Maria, Mills, Harriet, Truelove, Shaun, Hakeem, Rafat, Albarrak, Ali, Ferguson, Neil M and The MERS-CoV Scenario Modeling Working Group, (2014) Estimating potential incidence of MERS-CoV associated with Hajj pilgrims to Saudi Arabia, 2014. PLoS Currents. ISSN 2157-3999

WHO Ebola Response Team, (2014) Ebola virus disease in West Africa — the first 9 Months of the epidemic and forward projections. New England Journal of Medicine, 371 (16). pp. 1481-1495. ISSN 0028-4793

Nouvellet, Pierre, Dumonteil, Eric and Gourbière, Sébastien (2013) The improbable transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi to human: the missing link in the dynamics and control of Chagas disease. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 7 (11). e2505. ISSN 1935-2735

Donnelly, Christl A and Nouvellet, Pierre (2013) The contribution of badgers to confirmed tuberculosis in cattle in high-incidence areas in England. PLoS Currents. ISSN 2157-3999

Dumonteil, Eric, Nouvellet, Pierre, Rosecrans, Kathryn, Ramirez-Sierra, Maria Jesus, Gamboa-León, Rubi, Cruz-Chan, Vladimir, Rosado-Vallado, Miguel and Gourbière, Sébastien (2013) Eco-bio-social determinants for house infestation by non-domiciliated Triatoma dimidiata in the Yucatan peninsula, Mexico. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 7 (9). e2466 1-9. ISSN 1935-2735

Nouvellet, P and Gourbiere, S (2013) Biased sex-ratio and sex-biased heterozygote disadvantage affect the maintenance of a genetic polymorphism and the properties of hybrid zones. Journal of Evolutionary Biology, 26 (8). pp. 1774-1783. ISSN 1010-061X

Nouvellet, Pierre, Newman, Chris, Buesching, Christina D and Macdonald, David W (2013) A multi-metric approach to investigate the effects of weather conditions on the demographic of a terrestrial mammal, the European badger (Meles meles). PLoS ONE, 8 (7). e68116 1-7. ISSN 1932-6203

Nouvellet, Pierre, Donnelly, Christl A, De Nardi, Marco, Rhodes, Chris J, De Benedictis, Paola, Citterio, Carlo, Obber, Federica, Lorenzetto, Monica, Pozza, Manuela Dalla, Cauchemez, Simon and Cattoli, Giovanni (2013) Rabies and canine distemper virus epidemics in the red fox population of Northern Italy (2006–2010). PLoS ONE, 8 (4). e61588 1-12. ISSN 1932-6203

Campbell, Ruairidh D, Nouvellet, Pierre, Newman, Chris, Macdonald, David W and Rosell, Frank (2012) The influence of mean climate trends and climate variance on beaver survival and recruitment dynamics. Global Change Biology, 18 (9). pp. 2730-2742. ISSN 1354-1013

Nouvellet, Pierre, Rasmussen, G S A, Macdonald, D W and Courchamp, F (2012) Noisy clocks and silent sunrises: measurement methods of daily activity pattern. Journal of Zoology, 286 (3). pp. 179-184. ISSN 0952-8369

Nouvellet, Pierre, Ramirez-Sierra, Maria Jesus, Dumonteil, Eric and Gourbière, Sébastien (2011) Effects of genetic factors and infection status on wing morphology of Triatoma dimidiata species complex in the Yucatán peninsula, Mexico. Infection, Genetics and Evolution, 11 (6). pp. 1243-1249. ISSN 15671348

Czaczkes, T J, Nouvellet, P and Ratnieks, F L W (2011) Cooperative food transport in the Neotropical ant, Pheidole oxyops. Insectes Sociaux, 58 (2). pp. 153-161. ISSN 0020-1812

Nouvellet, P, Buesching, C D, Dugdale, H L, Newman, C and Macdonald, D W (2011) Mouthing off about developmental stress: individuality of palate marking in the European badger and its relationship with juvenile parasitoses. Journal of Zoology, 283 (1). pp. 52-62. ISSN 09528369

Nouvellet, P, Bacon, J P and Waxman, D (2010) Testing the level of ant activity associated with quorum sensing: An empirical approach leading to the establishment and test of a null-model. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 266 (4). pp. 573-583. ISSN 0022-5193

Macdonald, David W, Newman, Christopher, Buesching, Christina D and Nouvellet, Pierre (2010) Are badgers ‘Under The Weather’? Direct and indirect impacts of climate variation on European badger (Meles meles) population dynamics. Global Change Biology, 16. pp. 2913-2922. ISSN 13541013

Dugdale, H L, Nouvellet, P, Pope, L C, Burke, T and Macdonald, D W (2010) Fitness measures in selection analyses: sensitivity to the overall number of offspring produced in a lifetime. Journal of Evolutionary Biology, 23 (2). pp. 282-292. ISSN 1010061X

Macdonald, David W, Newman, Christopher, Nouvellet, Pierre M and Buesching, Christina D (2009) An analysis of Eurasian badger (Meles meles) population dynamics: implications for regulatory mechanisms. Journal of Mammalogy, 90 (6). pp. 1392-1403. ISSN 0022-2372

Nouvellet, P, Bacon, J P and Waxman, D (2009) Fundamental insights into the random movement of animals from a single distance-related statistic. American Naturalist, 174 (4). pp. 506-514. ISSN 0003-0147

Broom, M, Nouvellet, P, Bacon, J P and Waxman, D (2007) Parameter-free testing of the shape of a probability distribution. BioSystems, 90 (2). pp. 509-515. ISSN 0303-2647

Marais, Gabriel, Nouvellet, Pierre, Keightley, Peter D and Charlesworth, Brian (2005) Intron size and exon evolution in Drosophila. Genetics, 170 (1). pp. 481-485. ISSN 0016-6731


Nouvellet, Pierre (2010) From A to B, statistical modelling of the ecology of ants and badgers. Doctoral thesis (DPhil), University of Sussex.