Marianna Cerasuolo

''Mathematical modelling and data science for sustainable agriculture''.

Climate change affects various aspects of agricultural production, including fluctuations in temperature and precipitation that impact nutrient cycling, soil moisture, pest occurrences, and plant diseases. In response, crop diversification and a range of management practices are being explored as methods to address these challenges. The amount of carbon in soil is often used as a proxy for soil health, and increasing the capture and storage of carbon dioxide has the potential to make a positive impact on mitigating climate change. However, soil carbon dynamics are slow, and data-informed mathematical models are necessary to support research in agriculture, such as predicting the impact of innovative cropping strategies.

In this seminar, I will present results from the research undertaken within the Diverfarming project (www.diverfarming.eu), which aimed to promote sustainable agriculture in Europe through crop diversification and reduced-input farming. A central aim was to apply mathematical and statistical methods to evaluate the environmental and economic consequences of diversified cropping systems. Our analyses showed that while such systems may yield less in the short term, they often enhance resilience, improve soil function, and lead to comparable or improved profitability over time.

Using the experiment-based mathematical model ECOSSE-M, developed within the project, we examined the effects of diversified cropping systems across six European countries, considering soil–water–atmosphere–plant interactions at both farm and landscape scales. In particular, I will focus on the Po Valley in Northern Italy, where mathematical, statistical, and machine learning approaches were employed to investigate the spatial dynamics of soil carbon in intensive agricultural systems. This allowed us to quantify the effects of different management practices and identify key drivers of carbon storage.

Our results provide science-based evidence on the role of crop diversification in improving soil health and mitigating climate change, and demonstrate how sustainable agricultural practices can enhance resilience, reduce environmental impacts, and support long-term ecosystem health.

Talk delivered as part of Sussex AI seminar series on 7th May 2025.