Global Temperature Responses of Residential Energy Demand: An Application of Bayesian Hierarchical Models
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Abstract:
How does residential energy demand respond to temperature across countries? Existing works are largely based on single or few country specific studies, offering limited insights into global patterns and heterogeneity. Using data for up to 126 Countries from 1978 to 2023, we estimate non-linear and country-specific temperature responses within a Bayesian Hierarchical Framework. The results indicate a higher demand for residential electricity and natural gas at temperatures below -5◦C and a higher demand for electricity at temperatures above 30◦C. Building on these estimates a scenario analysis using socioeconomic pathways and climate scenarios is developed.
Bio:
Peer Lasse Hinrichsen is a PhD candidate in Quantitative Economics at Kiel University and a research assistant at the Institute for Environmental, Resource and Spatial Economics. His research focuses on the relationship between climate and energy demand, combining global data with Bayesian panel methods. His work examines temperature sensitivity of energy demand and develops projections of future energy demand under climate and socioeconomic change