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Publication Type J
Authors Borges, F. O., C. P. Santos, J. R. Paula, E. Mateos-Naranjo, S. Redondo-Gomez, J. B. Adams, I. Cacador, V. F. Fonseca, P. Reis-Santos, B. Duarte and R. Rosa
Title Invasion and Extirpation Potential of Native and Invasive Spartina Species Under Climate Change
Source Frontiers in Marine Science
Language English
Author Keywords biological invasion coastal areas salt marshes cordgrass native species distribution model soil organic-carbon sea-level rise valuing ecosystem services salt-marsh coastal wetland distribution models pacific coast sample-size alterniflora patens Environmental Sciences & Ecology Marine & Freshwater Biology
Abstract Coastal areas host some of the planet's most productive ecosystems, providing life-sustaining ecological services and several benefits to humankind, while also being some of the most threatened areas (e.g., by globalization, climate change, and biological invasion). Salt marshes are coastal habitats with a key role in food and shelter provisioning, sediment deposition, nutrient cycling and carbon storage. Spartina spp. is a genus of grass halophytes which occurs in salt marshes worldwide, and includes species with different invasive potential. We evaluated the effect of climate change in the distribution and invasion potential of five Spartina species (S. anglica, S. alterniflora, S. densiflora, S. patens, and S. maritima) at a global scale. Species distribution models (SDMs) were applied on species occurrence data and atmospheric environmental predictors (WorldClim 2.1) to project potential changes in habitat suitability and associated changes in distribution and species co-occurrence until the end of the century, across four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (i.e., SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5). Projections showed a global trend for increasing species co-occurrence, with a general range expansion potentiated by increasing pathway severity. This study suggests that Spartina species can potentially benefit from climate change, predicting poleward expansions in the Northern Hemisphere for most species, with results pointing at increased conflict and invasion potential in Northern Europe and East Asian shorelines, already under strong invasive pressure. S. anglica is projected to remain a successful invader, with more severe scenarios likely favoring greater expansions. S. alterniflora exhibits very low expansion comparatively, despite exhibiting the same northward distribution shift. SSP1-2.6 produced the smallest change to species co-occurrence, suggesting a smaller potential for invasion-related conflicts, although still registering a potential net expansion for the Genus. Despite their limitations, SDMs can help establish general trends in climate change ecology and inform policymakers and environmental agents to ensure the correct management of these habitats and, ultimately, ecosystems.
Author Address [Borges, Francisco O.; Santos, Catarina P.; Paula, Jose R.; Cacador, Isabel; Fonseca, Vanessa F.; Duarte, Bernardo; Rosa, Rui] Univ Lisbon, Fac Ciencias, MARE Marine & Environm Sci Ctr, Lisbon, Portugal. [Mateos-Naranjo, Enrique; Redondo-Gomez, Susana] Univ Seville, Fac Biol, Dept Biol Vegetal & Ecol, Seville, Spain. [Adams, Janine Barbara] Nelson Mandela Univ, Dept Bot, Inst Coastal & Marine Res, Port Elizabeth, South Africa. [Adams, Janine Barbara] Nelson Mandela Univ, Dept Sci & Innovat, Natl Res Fdn, Res Chair Shallow Water Ecosyst, Port Elizabeth, South Africa. [Cacador, Isabel; Duarte, Bernardo] Univ Lisbon, Dept Biol Vegetal, Fac Ciencias, Lisbon, Portugal. [Fonseca, Vanessa F.; Rosa, Rui] Univ Lisbon, Dept Biol Anim, Fac Ciencias, Lisbon, Portugal. [Reis-Santos, Patrick] Univ Adelaide, Sch Biol Sci, Southern Seas Ecol Labs, Adelaide, SA, Australia. Borges, FO (corresponding author), Univ Lisbon, Fac Ciencias, MARE Marine & Environm Sci Ctr, Lisbon, Portugal. fdborges@fc.ul.pt
29-Character Source Abbreviation Front. Mar. Sci.
Publication Date Aug
Year Published 2021
Volume 8
Beginning Page 16
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) 10.3389/fmars.2021.696333
Unique Article Identifier WOS:000692733600001

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