Main research interests (also for PhD topics):

- Technological change, institutional change, and economic development
- Innovation, occupational choice, and inequality
- Violent conflict and entrepreneurship
- Micro-macro models of structural change, growth, income distribution, and sustainability
- Political economy of science and techology
- International trade and globalisation of agriculture and production
- The ecological impact of innovation and consumption behaviour


Publications (Selected)

Ciarli, T., Lorentz, A., Valente, M., and Savona, M. (2018), “Structural Changes and Growth Regimes,” Journal of Evolutionary Economics, doi: 10.1007/s00191-018-0574-4. Springer Nature SharedItSPRU Working Paper version

Ciarli T., Valente M., (2016), "The Complex Interactions between Economic Growth and Market Concentration in a Model of Structural Change", Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 38(September): 38-54. SPRU Working Paper version.

A. Lorentz, Ciarli T., Savona M., Valente M., (2016), “The Effect of Demand-Driven Structural Transformations on Growth and Technological Change,” Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 26(1): 219-246. SPRU Working Paper version available

Ciarli T., Rafols I, Coad A., (2015), "Quantitative Analysis of Technology Futures: A Review of Techniques, Uses and Characteristics", Science and Public Policy43(5): 630-645SPRU Working Paper version.

Arora S., Baan Hofman N., Koshti V., and Ciarli T, (2013), “Cultivating Compliance: Governance of North Indian Organic Basmati Smallholders in a Global Value Chain,” Environment and Planning A, 45(8): 1912-1928 

Ciarli, T. (2012), “Structural interactions and long run growth: An application of Experimental Design to Agent Based Models,” Revudl’OFCE, Debates and policies, 124: 295-345 WP version

Ciarli, T., Meliciani, V., and Savona, M. (2012), “Knowledge dynamics, structural change and the geography of business services,” Journal of Economic Surveys, 26(3): 445-467. Reprinted in: Philip McCann & Les Oxley, ed., 'Innovation, Entrepreneurship, Geography, and Growth', Wiley-Blackwell, pp. 79-104

Ciarli, T., Lorentz, A., Savona, M., and Valente, M. (2010), “The effect of consumption and production structure on growth and distribution. A micro to macro model,” Metroeconomica, 61(1):180-218 WP version

Windrum, P., Ciarli, T., and Birchenhall, C. (2009), “Consumer heterogeneity and the development of environmentally friendly technologies,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 76(4):533-551

Windrum, P., Ciarli, T., and Birchenhall, C. (2009), “Environmental impact, quality, and price: Consumer trade-offs and the development of environmentally friendly technologiesTechnological Forecasting and Social Change, 76(4):552-566

Ciarli, T., Leoncini, R., Montresor, S., and Valente, M. (2008), “Technological change and the vertical organisation of industries,” Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 18(3-4):367-387, reprinted in Cantner, U., Gaffard, J.-L., and Nesta, L., editors (2009) Schumpeterian Perspectives on Innovation, Competition and Growth: 115-136. Springer Verlag WP version

Ciarli, T. and Rabellotti, R. (2007), “ICTs in industrial districts: An empirical analysis on adoption, use and impact,” Industry and Innovation, 14(3):277-303



Submitted Working Papers

Ciarli T., Savona M. (2017), “Modelling the Evolution of Economic Structures and Climate Changes: A Review”, mimeo

Savona M., Ciarli T. (2017), “Structural Changes and Sustainability. A Review of the Empirical Stylised Facts”, mimeo

Ciarli, T., Rafols, I. (2017), “The Relation between Research Priorities and Societal Demands: The Case of Rice”, mimeo 

Kofol C., Ciarli T. (2017), "Child Labour and Conflict: Evidence from Afghanistan", ZEF-Discussion Papers on Development Policy, 240: 1-53

Ciarli, T., Lorentz, A., Savona, M., and Valente, M. (2012), “The role of technology, organisation, and demand in growth and income distribution,” LEM Working Paper 2012/06, San’Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa



(Unpublished) Working Papers (Selected)

Ciarli T., Savona M., Thorpe J., and Ayele S., “Innovation for Inclusive Structural Change. A Framework and Research Agenda”, SPRU Working Paper Series (SWPS), 2018-04: 1-35, University of Sussex 

Saha A., and Ciarli T., (2018) “Innovation, Structural Change, and Inclusion. A Cross Country PVAR Analysis” SPRU Working Paper Series (SWPS), 2018-01: 1-61, University of Sussex

Ciarli T., Rafols I. (2016), “The Under-Representation of Developing Countries in the Main Bibliometric Databases: A Comparison of Rice Studies in the Web of Science, Scopus and CAB”, Globlics Conference Proceedings

Ciarli, T., and Savona, M., (2016) De los Cambios Cuadráticos a los Cambios Exponenciales: Relación entre Estructura Económica y Sostenibilidad”, Documento de Proyecto, CEPAL, United Nations, Santiago

Ciarli T., Kofol C., Menon C. (2015) "Business as unusual. An explanation of the increase of private economic activity in high-conflict areas in Afghanistan", SERC Discussion Paper, 182, LSE, London

Ciarli T., Di Maio M. Langlotz S. (2015) ``Difficult Relationships: Conflict, Entrepreneurship and Economic Development'', mimeo, PEDL/SPRU

Ciarli T., Rafols I. and Coad A. (2013), “Quantitative Analysis of Technology Futures. Part I: Techniques, Contexts, and Organisations,” NESTA Working paper 12/09

Ciarli T., Rafols I. and Coad A. (2013), “Quantitative Analysis of Technology Futures. Part 2: Conceptual framework for positioning FTA techniques in policy appraisal,” NESTA Working paper 13/09

Rafols I., Ciarli T., van Zwanenberg P., Stirling A. (2012) ``Towards Indicators for `Opening Up' Science and Technology Policy,'' mimeo SPRU

Ciarli, T., Parto, S., and Savona, M. (2010), “Entrepreneurship under conflict in Afghanistan: Determinants and motivations of small business owners,” mimeo, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Jena, Germany [WIDER report]

“Evolutionary approaches to development: unpacking technological change and institutions,” with S. Arora, & L. Cusmano, project deliverable (2011) Max Planck Institute of Economics

“Regional structural change and small firms’ adaptabilities: Evidence from Italian firm-level data,” with P. Seri, mimeo (2011), Max Planck Institute of Economics

“Product Variety and Changes in Consumption Patterns: The Effects of Structural Change on Growth,” with A. Lorentz, mimeo (2010) Max Planck Institute of Economics

“Openness to Trade, Convergence in Tastes and Growth Rates Differences in an Evolutionary Model of Structural Change,” with A. Lorentz, mimeo (2011) Max Planck Institute of Economics

Parto, S., Ciarli, T., and Arora, S. (2005), “Economic growth, innovation systems, and institutional change: A trilogy in five parts,” MERIT Research Memorandum series 2005-21, Maastricht University, The Netherlands



Book chapters (selected)

Ciarli T., and Di Maio M. (2014), “Theoretical arguments for industrialisation-driven growth and economic development,” In Matambalya, F. S., Ed, African Industrial Development and European Union Co-operation. Routledge, London. SPRU Working Paper

Ciarli, T., Leoncini, R., Montresor, S., and Valente, M. (2010), “Product architecture and firm organisation: The role of interfaces,” In Ahrweiler, P., Ed, Innovation in Complex Social Systems: 262-274. Routledge, London. Book review

Ciarli, T., Leoncini, R., Montresor, S., and Valente, M. (2010), “Linking technological change to organisational dynamics: Some insights from a pseudo-nk model,” In Leoncini, R. and De Liso, N., Eds, Internationalization, Technological Change and the Theory of the Firm. Routledge, London

Ciarli, T. and Valente, M. (2005), “Firms interaction and industrial development: A simulation model,” In Giuliani, E., Rabellotti, R., and Van Dijk, M. P., Eds, Clusters Facing Competition: The Importance of External Linkages: 259-289. Ashgate, Aldershot

Ciarli, T. and Giuliani, E. (2005), “Inversión extranjera directa y encadenamientos productivos en Costa Rica,” In Cimoli, M., Ed, Heterogeneidad estructural, asimetrías tecnologicas y crecimiento en América Latina, LC/W 35: 127-162. ECLAC/IDB, Santiago.

Ciarli, T. and Valente, M. (2004), “A generalised computational model of firms production and interactions: Preliminary results on industrial dynamics,” In Richiardi, M. and Leombruni, R., Eds, Industry and Labour Dynamics. The Agent-based Computational Economics Approach: 297-331. World Scienti¿c Publishing, Singapore




Ciarli T. (2013), "Modularity" in Economics and Finance Dictionary. Treccani, Rome, Italy

Ciarli T. (2013), "Structuralist School" in Economics and Finance Dictionary. Treccani, Rome, Italy

Ciarli, T. (2010), “Review of: Innovation networks. New approaches in modelling and analyzing, A. Pyka and A. Scharnhorst (eds),” Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulations, 13(1)

Ciarli, T., Parto, S., and Savona, M. (2009), “Conflict and entrepreneurial activity in Afghan provinces: A preliminary analysis,” EPS Quarterly, 21(2):4-5 8-9



Work in Progress

Ciarli T., Coad, A., Moneta A., “Exporting and productivity as part of the growth process: Results from a structural VAR”

Ciarli T., Marzucchi A., Salgado E., Savona M., “The effect of R&D Growth on Employment and Self-Employment in Local Labour Markets”

Ciarli T., Salgado E., Savona M., “The Heterogeneous Wage Distribution of Labour Productivity Changes"

Pasimeni F., Ciarli T., “Diffusion of shared goods in consumers’ coalitions. An agent-based simulation”

Grodzicki M., Ciarli T., Savona M., “Asymmetries in GVCs: in search of cost- and capability advantages”

Wirkierman A. L., Ciarli T., Savona M., (2017), “Varieties of European National Innovation Systems” EC project deliverable 1.2

Wirkierman A. L., Ciarli T., Mazzucato M., (2017) “An Evolutionary Agent-Based Model of Innovation and the Risk-Reward Nexus”, EC project deliverable 3.3

Wirkierman A. L., Ciarli T., Savona M., “Varieties of Growth Regimes, Structural Changes and Innovation Sys- tems in Europe”

Valente M., Ciarli T., Sapio A., “Distributed Energy Storage Systems. Effects on Demand Volatility”

"The Unresolved Relation between Conflict and Private Enterprise Activity in Low-Income Countries: Contrasting Afghanistan and Iraq'' with Salgado E.

"Inclusive Innovation: Some Questions about Terms of Inclusion,'' with Arora S. and Hielscher S.

“Simulating the Causal Implications of Firms as Bundles of Discrete Resources,” with A. Coad

“Causality between export and productivity growth of firms revisited: Chile 2001-2007,” with A. Coad and A. Moneta, mime(2011) Max Planck Institute of Economics, Jena

“The trajectory is on the map, but we miss the pathways,” with I. Rafols and D. Rotolo

“Product variety and economic growth: Trade off between supply and demand dynamics,” with A. Lorentz